Velocity vs. Predictability: Which Matters More?

The Velocity Trap

Many teams focus obsessively on increasing velocity—the amount of story points completed per sprint. But high velocity means nothing if stakeholders can't rely on your commitments.

Understanding The Difference

Velocity: Speed of Delivery

Velocity measures throughput:

• Story points completed per sprint
• Features shipped per quarter
• Lines of code written (not recommended!)

Predictability: Reliability of Delivery

Predictability measures consistency:

• Percentage of committed work completed
• Variance in sprint velocity
• Accuracy of release date estimates

Why Predictability Matters More

1. Trust Building

Stakeholders don't need you to be fast—they need you to be reliable. A team that consistently delivers 30 points is more valuable than a team that delivers 50 points one sprint and 10 the next.

2. Planning Confidence

Predictable teams enable better business planning:

• Marketing can confidently plan launches
• Sales can make realistic commitments
• Leadership can make informed roadmap decisions

3. Team Health

Predictable teams are usually healthier teams:

• Less crunch time and overtime
• Better work-life balance
• More sustainable pace
• Lower burnout rates

Measuring Predictability

Commitment Reliability

Track the percentage of committed work that actually gets done:

Commitment Reliability = (Points Completed / Points Committed) × 100

Aim for 85-95% consistently. Over 95% might mean you're under-committing. Under 85% suggests over-commitment or estimation issues.

Velocity Variance

Calculate the standard deviation of your velocity over time:

• Low variance (±10%): Highly predictable
• Medium variance (±20%): Moderately predictable
• High variance (±30%+): Unpredictable

Improving Predictability

1. Better Estimation

• Use planning poker consistently
• Break down large stories
• Track estimation accuracy
• Build estimation muscle memory

2. Conservative Commitment

• Under-promise, over-deliver
• Leave buffer for unknowns (20-30%)
• Account for team capacity changes
• Remember non-sprint work (support, meetings)

3. Sprint Discipline

• Protect sprint scope after planning
• Say no to mid-sprint additions
• Have a clear process for urgent work
• Make scope changes visible

4. Technical Health

• Invest in automated testing
• Reduce technical debt
• Improve deployment pipeline
• Document and share knowledge

When Velocity Matters

Velocity isn't useless—it matters in these contexts:

• Long-term trends: Is the team improving over time?
• Capacity planning: How much work can we fit in a quarter?
• Comparative analysis: How do different team compositions perform?

The Balanced Approach

Measure Both

Track velocity AND predictability:

• Velocity for capacity planning
• Predictability for stakeholder trust
• Both for continuous improvement

Optimize for Predictability First

Once you're predictable, you can work on increasing velocity without sacrificing reliability.

Key Takeaways

• Predictability builds trust; velocity shows capacity
• Aim for 85-95% commitment reliability
• Low variance in velocity indicates good predictability
• Under-promise and over-deliver beats the opposite
• Technical health directly impacts predictability

Remember: Stakeholders prefer a team that reliably delivers 80% of what they promise over a team that sometimes delivers 150% and other times delivers 40%.